A blue wave, not a sea change

As expected, the midterm elections in the United States swung strongly toward the Democrats. The president’s party usually loses ground in the midterms, so the direction was no surprise. The scale of the defeat, however, was striking.

Several factors stand out. President Donald Trump alienated not only progressives but also a substantial share of conservative voters. Inflation played a major role, while the war with Iran disillusioned some of his own MAGA supporters.

Another factor may have been his choice of Republican candidates to endorse. In some races, he appeared to place greater weight on loyalty to his positions than on candidates’ appeal to voters.

The U.S. remains, at heart, a conservative, stable and resilient nation.

Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

 

Some individual results were particularly revealing. Republicans lost both a U.S. Senate seat and the governorship in Texas. The Senate winner, James Talarico, 37, is a Christian with quite strong conservative views. His opponent, Ken Paxton, had a tainted personal record and limited charisma. Mr. Talarico offers hope that the Democrats can return to the center and embrace greater pragmatism. The personal foibles of the Republican Senate candidate in Michigan also explain the victory of Abdul El-Sayed, the radical, anti-Israel Democratic candidate.

American policy will not change drastically. The White House will continue to exercise its foreign policy powers, while protectionism and tariffs remain popular in the U.S. As a result, a Democratic majority in Congress will not aim to bring change. The administration’s room for maneuver in domestic politics may narrow, but sweeping changes in foreign policy are especially unlikely.

The midterms’ message

What, then, do the elections tell us? First, they show that widespread fears in the media that President Trump would undermine democracy and dismantle institutional checks and balances were misplaced. Now, there is a media-wide narrative that U.S. democracy has been saved. In reality, the U.S. has very robust institutions to which Donald Trump posed no danger. As GIS has argued since 2016, U.S. institutions are strong enough to withstand anyone’s attempts to break them, or politicians’ unconventional natures. We should also recognize that, despite his personal peculiarities, President Trump is a true American patriot.

His record includes several positive measures, notably deregulation and steps to strengthen national security. This will not stop his fiercest detractors on both sides of the Atlantic from defaming him. Yet he was more realistic about the danger posed by Iran than his predecessors or European governments.

He also compelled Europe to take greater responsibility for its security, defense and supply lines. His administration has focused attention on new arenas of strategic competition – the Arctic, cyberspace and space.

Some election results nevertheless raise concerns. For the first time in decades, a Democrat won the Texas governorship. The state was on course to become the leading hub for U.S. data centers, which are essential to the development and success of the artificial intelligence industry. Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa capitalized on public fears about data centers, and promised a moratorium on their construction. This would deal a critical blow to U.S. economic growth.

The results also show that America is not moving toward socialism. It remains, at heart, a conservative, stable and resilient nation. California’s vote against taxing the rich offers further evidence.

The outcome cannot simply be labeled positive or negative. Democracy allows voters to pass judgment on those in power without necessarily endorsing the entire agenda of their opponents.