Old patterns in a new hybrid war

The United States, Russia and Ukraine are holding talks in Abu Dhabi this week on Ukraine’s future. Russian attacks on Ukraine are increasing, showing the Kremlin’s determination to secure a win in the negotiations. The outcome of the process is uncertain, but one thing is clear: The members of the Russian delegation are masters of misdirection and obfuscation.

European countries are involved only as observers, although this meeting has crucial consequences for the continent’s security architecture.

Europe in the face of unconventional warfare

Undeniably, a hybrid war is already underway between Russia and European countries. Cybercrime, sabotage, drone strikes, propaganda and other attacks occur almost daily. It is obvious that Russia does not care whether its involvement is uncovered – it will deny it anyway. These acts of intimidation, especially the propaganda campaigns, are intended to destabilize Europe and test its determination.

But Moscow is not alone: Iran and radical Islamist movements are also exploiting Europe’s lack of direction to advance their objectives.

If the EU acts strategically, this could be an opportunity to strengthen cohesion through deregulation and decentralization.

Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

Russia is trying, very successfully, to sow confusion in European politics. It has managed to create the impression in Europe that so-called right-wing parties are its allies. In doing so, it contributes to the marginalization of a substantial part of the European political spectrum. Nationalist parties use the concept of peace to attract voters, which is certainly populist, but as Prime Minister Meloni has shown in Italy, this does not mean they are allies of Russia.

Russia has also managed to deepen polarization, and Europe has once again fallen into the trap. The issue is that one side is forced into uncompromising hostility toward Russia, extending its opposition beyond politics to Russian culture, including music and ballet. This unnecessary overreaction is itself a weakness. Nationalists, meanwhile, make excuses for Moscow by invoking past Western interference. However, even overcoming this situation will not solve the issue of the shadow warfare taking place between Russia and the rest of Europe. Hybrid war can escalate further, to the point of openly using weapons.

What could a compromise on Ukraine bring? Russia would get the Donbas and Crimea. Initially, the conflict might be frozen de facto, without a de jure settlement. Russia would insist on a “militarily neutral” regime in the remaining Ukrainian territory. But it might compromise on EU accession, subject to conditions requiring demilitarization.

This would create a challenging situation for Europe. Russia would hope to weaken cohesion within the EU through Ukraine’s accession. On the other hand, if the EU acts strategically, this could be an opportunity to strengthen cohesion through deregulation and decentralization. But looking further ahead, Ukraine is not the end goal for the Kremlin. Moscow has its eye on the Baltics and hopes to neutralize Central Europe, including Germany. It is also conducting extensive hybrid operations and using sleeper operatives in the Baltics, Poland and Germany.

There is a logic to the Kremlin’s expansionist ambitions. To counter them, Europe will have to return to realism and start acknowledging historical patterns. Central Europe is once again Europe’s guardian to the east, a role it has played for centuries.