Iran will not be defeated, but its regime can be

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared at the BRICS summit in India that Tehran would agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States stopped blocking Iranian trade and supplies and lifted its sanctions. He also demanded the release of frozen assets, the resumption of investment, an end to Israel’s operations in Lebanon and several other concessions.

It is either very naive to demand such concessions or a bold first step born of desperation, taken in the hope of reaching a compromise by exploiting perceived weakness in Washington and, especially, among its allies.

Iran’s internal situation is increasingly desperate. Fuel shortages are beginning to paralyze distribution networks. Many parts of the country lack reliable energy and electricity supplies, and also suffer from food shortages. Purchasing power has fallen by about 60 percent since March.

These conditions are causing severe hardship for the population and therefore pose an increasing challenge to the regime. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other security forces can still keep the regime in power through extreme brutality, as demonstrated by the killing of an estimated more than 30,000 people in January. Some observers believe, however, that the regime will be jeopardized if the lack of essential goods and services were to spread.

It is not the objective to fight and defeat Iran. The regime, however, can be defeated – and defeating it is necessary.

 

Meanwhile, Tehran has not limited its activities to blocking the Strait of Hormuz and attacking targets on the Arabian Peninsula. Besides supporting the Houthi rebels in Yemen, it continues to support and encourage Hezbollah’s terrorist activities against Israel while retaining its objective of destroying the Israeli state. These activities compel Israel to operate in southern Lebanon. Through Hezbollah, Lebanon remains war-torn and deeply unstable.

It is well known that Tehran has contacts with terrorist organizations worldwide. Indirectly, it also encourages Islamist terrorists in Europe and elsewhere. Peace in the Middle East is impossible as long as the present regime remains in power in Tehran. The new trilateral defense agreement among Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye will probably help stabilize the overall situation in the region to some extent, but it will not solve the underlying problems.

The Houthis’ recent occupation of Perim Island poses a serious threat to international shipping, particularly to Europe. It is difficult to understand why European naval units stationed nearby in Djibouti have not intervened. One of the main reasons for maintaining forces there is to combat piracy off the Somali coast. Yet the Houthis’ actions are illegal and far more damaging than those of traditional Somali pirates.

The Iranian regime appears to be treated as something of a sacred cow by the German, Spanish, French and other European governments. They have already refused to provide infrastructure support for American operations against the regime in Iran. Yet the U.S. measures against the Iranian regime serve Europe’s interests even more than America’s. It is also astonishing that European media coverage focuses mainly on the lack of U.S. success against the regime in Tehran rather than on the enormous problems confronting Iran itself.

The situation in Iran is fragile, and a large majority of the population is at odds with the regime. Some estimates put this figure at around 80 percent. The population’s suffering is deeply regrettable, but making compromises will help the regime, not the people it oppresses. An opposition exists, particularly in the diaspora, and it has supporters inside the country. Every effort should be made to use the present situation to support that opposition so that the regime can be changed through the will of the Iranian people, without necessarily resorting to foreign force.

There is a widespread assumption that Iran cannot be defeated – and defeating Iran would not be desirable. We can agree with that. It is not the objective to fight and defeat Iran. The regime, however, can be defeated – and defeating it is necessary.