A ceasefire in Ukraine: What comes next

It appears that a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war is drawing near. The most likely demarcation line will hew closely to the current front.

Genuine peace talks remain distant – the two sides are far apart. Kyiv still clings to the goal of restoring the country’s pre-2014 borders, while Moscow wants formal control of Crimea and the entire Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. It also insists that Ukrainian membership of NATO be ruled out, and would prefer it not to become a member of the European Union as well.

History shows that frozen conflicts tend to harden into permanence. Realistically, Kyiv risks losing the territories now occupied and administered by Russia.

That outcome leaves urgent questions for Ukraine, Europe and Russia.

Ukraine’s restart

For Ukraine, the post-ceasefire period will be a new beginning. External capital will matter, but the decisive factor will be Ukrainians’ ability to rebuild on their own. That requires a slim, non-interventionist civil service and room for private enterprise to flourish. The country is rich in farmland, boasts a well-educated population and has deep expertise in digital technology and dual-use defense industries.

Kyiv would be wise to seek a comprehensive free-trade pact with the EU and, despite lingering resentment, a similar arrangement with the Eurasian Economic Union. Two-way trade across both blocs is possible. A parallel agreement with the United States on developing natural resources would provide far more security than any paper guarantee.

Why Europe must engage

Ukraine matters greatly to Europe. Major European states should extend concrete security guarantees and open the door to the free movement of goods, services, capital and people.

If the ceasefire is managed wisely, all sides stand to gain.

 

At the same time, Europe must reset its relations with Russia along two tracks. First, it needs credible military deterrence – ideally a tight coalition of Germany, Poland, France, the United Kingdom and Turkey – to dissuade further Russian adventures. Second, it should reassure Moscow that Western Europe will not meddle in Russia’s domestic affairs.

Europe is anchored to the United States in the North Atlantic, yet it is also part of Eurasia. It is not in Europe’s interest to face a hostile Sino-Russian bloc.

A smarter path for Russia

Russia, for its part, could reap the benefits of proximity to Europe, Central Asia and Asia-Pacific. By combining European technology, capital and talent with its own resources, Moscow could finally unlock Siberia’s potential and avoid overdependence on Beijing.

If the ceasefire is managed wisely, all sides stand to gain. That prospect need not remain a utopian dream.

This comment was originally published here: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/ukraine-ceasefire-what-next/