Global politics in a time of fundamental disruption

Geographically, Europe is a peninsula at the western end of the vast Eurasian landmass. It is also part of the Atlantic region, where easy shipping across the ocean has fostered connections between Europe and America. Thus, the old continent is closely linked to both East and West. Its close neighbor to the south, Africa, is becoming increasingly important as well.

This proximity offers Europe enormous freedom to engage with multiple regions. However, if Europe becomes too self-centered and ignores these possibilities, opportunities can quickly turn into threats.

The old continent suffers from a lack of statesmanship at both the national and European Union levels. As a result, a somewhat sclerotic “nomenklatura” has assumed technocratic leadership. Satisfaction is often found in issuing regulations and weaving a heavy bureaucratic net over society and the economy. This approach is highly protectionist while simultaneously stifling innovation and growth.

Europe seems content with itself, frequently critiquing foreign regions and their leaders while adopting a patronizing attitude. This reflects its internal character, but it also makes for poor foreign and security policy and harms the continent’s global geopolitical standing.

Europe’s missed opportunities in a shifting world

The North Atlantic relationship has been deteriorating for some time. The reasons include reliance on Russian gas in the past, trade imbalances and policies toward Iran. The current administration in Washington is not known for its patience or indulgence; as a result, European leaders and media have largely dismissed it. Typically the critic, Europe found itself on the receiving end when the Trump administration held up a mirror to its governance practices and made a strong and unconditional request to drastically increase defense efforts.

European leadership does not take President Donald Trump and his team seriously, failing to analyze or consider their intentions. European media, including those “reliable” outlets, portray him as erratic or even partially unstable. Both politicians and journalists fail to recognize his disruptive intentions. A significant shift from an institutional approach to a more transactional one is evident, which may have positive and likely irreversible implications.

The prevailing sentiment in Europe is on how to “resist Trump,” while the focus should instead be on how Europe can positively react and capitalize on new opportunities in this scenario.

Similarly, with Russia, European politics often takes a short-term, simplistic approach. The narrative is that President Vladimir Putin is bad and Ukraine should continue the war and win. However, European support for Ukraine has been lackluster.

European foreign and economic policies are failing in every direction – east, west and south – reflecting gross negligence and a total lack of statesmanship.

 

It is true that Russian ambitions toward its Western neighbors, including Georgia, must be resisted. Nevertheless, effective policies should take a long-term view. Fortunately, partly due to the much-criticized American leader, Europe has recognized the need for stronger defense. Military self-reliance will be essential for fostering long-term relationships with neighboring countries and should enable a sound strategy for future cooperation with Russia.

Realism is also essential. Moscow needs to be assured that European countries will engage in trade and cultural exchanges without attempting to influence its internal governance and culture. Conversely, similar assurances should be expected from Russia.

A satisfactory relationship with Russia is crucial for Europe’s long-term security and prosperity. European leaders, intellectuals and the media have clearly failed in this regard, favoring regime change instead. This is not going to happen, even after President Putin.

And what about Africa? Is it merely an unknown factor disrupting the European “Schlaraffenland” (land of milk and honey) with a burgeoning population and illegal migration?

Separated from Europe by the narrow and easily navigable Mediterranean Sea, Africa is an extremely rich continent possessing a vital asset that the world increasingly lacks: young people. During and after the colonial era, European nations treated African countries condescendingly. In a misguided attempt to soothe their conscience and calm the situation, Europe funneled money into development aid without clear objectives. Simultaneously, necessary development projects were tied to value systems alien to African culture and traditions, leading to accusations of neocolonialism.

European regulatory protectionism has also limited trade and investment in Africa, which it desperately needs. Rather than building economic relations as equal partners and simply seeking investment guarantees, European countries have failed to formulate clear objectives for their relations with many African states. As a result, the continent to Europe’s south is left vulnerable to the interests of other powers.

European foreign and economic policies are failing in every direction – east, west and south – reflecting gross negligence and a total lack of statesmanship.

Tremendous opportunities abound in all directions. Turkey is a good example of pragmatic and far-sighted foreign and security policies. The government adopts a long-term strategic view while also seizing tactical opportunities.

Europe desperately needs new politicians who take responsibility, embrace pragmatism, shed ideological blinders and consider future generations beyond the next election.

Toward a pragmatic European revival

However, changes are beginning to take shape. Thanks to President Trump’s insistence, European countries are starting to realize that they must take responsibility for their own defense. Yet, further developments will compel Europe to abandon its comfortable expediency and adopt a more proactive approach in foreign policy, particularly by deregulating internally. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke of a “Zeitenwende” (turning point) three years ago without taking concrete action or understanding what the concept truly means. Disruptive changes in technology, the economy and international relations will not permit a return to the status quo.

Transactional multipolarity will dominate international relations, balancing out through political and economic competition among states and regions. Competition will also intensify in technological innovation, business and economies. This should be greatly beneficial for society and enhance prosperity. With its cultural diversity, regional adaptability and educated population, Europe has the potential to regain its competitiveness in the global landscape.

This comment was originally published here: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/european-leadership/