De-escalation and diplomacy: The wrong option against Iran’s regime

The Israeli Air Force conducted several operations in Iran, with intelligence services deploying drones during the nights of June 12-13 and has continued in subsequent days. These attacks followed the collapse of negotiations between the United States and Iran over a new agreement aimed at limiting Tehran’s nuclear weapons development. As tensions escalated after the failed talks, the strikes were no surprise.

The Israeli operations have heavily damaged, among other targets, Iran’s nuclear development center and eliminated the head of the armed forces’ general staff, other military senior officers and the leader of the regime’s elite unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Several top nuclear scientists were also among the Iranian casualties. This was a remarkable feat of Israeli intelligence.

Iran’s role in regional unrest

Since the fall of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1979 and the establishment of the authoritarian Islamic Republic of Iran, the regime has openly declared its intent to annihilate Israel. It has also positioned itself as a declared enemy of the U.S. and pursued totalitarian hegemony in the Middle East. Iran became the largest state sponsor of terrorism and advanced a program to develop nuclear capabilities, potentially enabling the creation of atomic warheads.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, finalized in 2015, was an international agreement designed to delay Iran’s nuclear development in exchange for lifting sanctions. However, Iran’s compliance with the agreement quickly came into question. In May 2018, the first Trump administration pulled out of the deal and reinstated unilateral sanctions. Beyond insufficient transparency, a compelling argument was that Tehran’s regime shamelessly continued its terrorist support for the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon, and Hamas in the Palestinian territories, particularly Gaza. The latter two groups not only oppress their populations but also carry out deadly attacks against Israel.

Surprisingly, European politicians have been indulgent toward the Iranian leadership, as have the Obama and, to some extent, the Biden administrations.

 

The architect of this strategy is the ayatollah’s regime, which also suppresses all freedom within its own borders in the most harsh and oppressive manner. The IRGC serves as its tool to eliminate opposition. Any dissent is crushed, and its leaders are killed. However, the people are deeply dissatisfied, and a courageous underground opposition persists. Only brutality sustains the regime.

Surprisingly, European politicians have been indulgent toward the Iranian leadership, as have the Obama and, to some extent, the Biden administrations.

In October 2023, Hamas – undoubtedly with Tehran’s approval – attacked Israel from Gaza. They not only slaughtered close to 1,200 innocent civilians but also kidnapped hundreds of hostages, including young children. The cynical motive for the massacre was likely this: In September 2020, the Abraham Accords were signed between several Arab countries and Israel, potentially fostering a more peaceful regional framework. Saudi Arabia was considering joining. Peaceful arrangements, however, would work against Tehran and the regime it has backed through its proxy, Hamas, in Gaza. The attack aimed to provoke Israel into retaliating, which would complicate Riyadh’s ability to join the accords. The plan unfolded, and Hamas and Tehran’s strategy, to the detriment of the people of Gaza, succeeded.

However, Israel’s resolve in self-defense was underestimated. It not only fought Hamas but also dismantled the leadership of Iran’s most prominent proxy, Hezbollah. The Hezbollah coup was a triumph of Israel’s intelligence services and a significant defeat and embarrassment for the Iranian regime.

The case against de-escalation

Returning to the current conflict, Iran has retaliated by launching a series of missile strikes on Israel, targeting major cities including Tel Aviv and Haifa. However, the strikes have achieved limited success, marking another setback.

A few days before the start of the attack by Israel, U.S. President Donald Trump offered Iran a deal: easing American sanctions in exchange for a complete renunciation of nuclear arms development and full transparency regarding its facilities. Tehran turned down the offer, sending a clear message, and Israel reacted accordingly.

The regime’s vulnerability, exposed by these defeats, offers Iran’s oppressed people and opposition a unique opportunity to topple it.

 

The international community and European leaders, such as the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, immediately expressed concern and called for de-escalation and diplomacy. This is hypocritical. Diplomacy is ineffective against terrorists.

The regime’s vulnerability, exposed by these defeats, offers Iran’s oppressed people and opposition a unique opportunity to topple it. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah and crown prince, currently living in exile, is a notable figure within the diaspora, although he is not actively pursuing the restoration of the monarchy. He urged Iranian institutions, such as the military, police and security forces, to align with the people and overthrow the regime. He also appealed to the international community not to “throw yet another lifeline to this dying, terrorist regime.”

Supporting this approach aligns with the goals of regional peace and Israel’s security. Pursuing de-escalation would be misguided in this context, as it would only allow the regime time to regroup and recover. In some instances, de-escalation may be appropriate, but not here. The global community must finally recognize that its indulgence toward the mullahs in Iran has been profoundly damaging and should learn from past mistakes.