The West talks, Russia waits

The French during Napoleon’s reign and the Germans in World War II learned that time usually favors Russia, mainly because of its vast size and the strong loyalty of its people. In addition, Russia often backs its policies with disinformation tactics. Another key factor that has bolstered Moscow’s strategies for centuries is Western countries’ tendency to overlook Russian needs and motivations. As a result, they often misjudge the Kremlin’s strategies.

The West’s struggle to counter Moscow

Washington canceled a planned meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. It seems that the proposal from Washington to end the war in Ukraine was not acceptable to the Russian leader. President Trump wants to avoid “wasting time” on a repeat of their August meeting in Alaska.

What does this imply? At first glance, this situation appears to be a win for Moscow. When President Trump refused to supply Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, it could have indicated a potential agreement with Russia and an effort to convince Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to accept it. In this context, the Kremlin also secured time. While ceasefire discussions are not ruled out and will continue, this delay will give Russia additional time.

What about sanctions? So far, they have not deterred Russia. The country has made what can be considered a fairly successful shift toward a war economy, with its economy growing, especially in the defense sector. On October 23, the European Union introduced its 19th sanctions package against Russia in unfounded hopes that these measures will prove more effective than previous ones.

Conventional diplomacy fails with President Putin.

 

President Trump’s determined stance

What might, however, cause more harm is President Trump’s new secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports, primarily targeting its largest buyers, India and China. Until now, these deliveries had been tolerated as long as the price remained below a certain threshold. However, that limit has now been dropped.

China has already suspended certain deliveries from Russia. This might ultimately have an impact. Reports suggest that Indian refiners are examining their contracts and could reduce direct imports of Russian crude.

In recent years, the West has taken a cautious approach to diplomacy, driven by fears of escalating tensions. This has allowed Moscow to take the initiative in escalation and intensify its actions. The result is a recipe for a permanent war.

Currently, Moscow’s strategy of playing for time seems to be paying off. However, with President Trump doubling down on tougher sanctions, the Kremlin may find itself pushed back to the negotiating table.

Conventional diplomacy fails with President Putin. In line with traditional Russian approaches and backed by KGB techniques, the Kremlin is adept at assessing its counterparts while carefully concealing its strategies. This gives Russia an edge in diplomatic exchanges. Nevertheless, Moscow might underestimate the unwavering resolve of a seasoned businessperson committed to finding an equitable solution.

This comment was originally published here: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/west-russia-trump/