We must ask: What is the logic behind such irrationality? To analyze this, we must separate global power plays, regional hegemonic ambitions, and the Israel-Palestinian issue. It is unfortunate that any analysis will touch on sensitive matters, while innocent people lose their homes and lives. The complexity lies in the interconnection – the Israel-Palestine issue is just one part of broader Middle Eastern politics.

International response and regional dynamics

In the United Nations, Washington and European capitals, the mantra has been to avoid regional escalation. But unfortunately, that escalation has already become a reality. Hamas’s horrific attack triggered a predictable, and likely planned, expansion of the conflict.

At the center of this turmoil is Tehran. Iran envisions regional dominance under its theocratic rule, with Israel as the primary target. The Iranian regime’s goal to annihilate Israel is not a mere statement – it is a strategic ambition. Israel, forced to respond for its survival, must prepare for a broader war.

Beyond eliminating Israel, Tehran seeks to dominate the Arab Middle East, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also in its sights. Syria and Iraq have already been destabilized and heavily influenced by Tehran. Iran’s strategy includes sponsoring terrorist organizations like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza.

The Houthis are waging a civil war in Yemen, at Saudi Arabia’s southern border. They have also attacked shipping routes in the Red Sea, damaging global trade, and fired missiles toward Israel. Iran’s support – facilitated by Western indifference and Israeli complacency – has allowed Hezbollah to not only become a major threat to Israel but also a political force in Lebanon, contributing to the country’s collapse. Hezbollah is heavily armed, courtesy of Tehran, and the West has largely ignored the pleas of Lebanese moderates (primarily Christians and peace-minded Muslims) to isolate the group.

The international community discredited itself with the Iran nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. The deal with Tehran, led by the UN Security Council and Germany, delayed Iran’s nuclear ambitions but failed to address its sponsorship of terrorism. We must not forget that Tehran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. This was a key reason why the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions. Yet, unrealistic views of the Iranian regime persist, particularly in Europe and parts of Washington.

The international community, from the UN to governments and the media, continues to wring its hands. How could this happen? By signing the JCPOA and engaging in endless diplomacy, they gave Tehran the upper hand in its subversive activities. Meanwhile, Israel – fighting for its survival – has been losing the public relations battle.

Israel’s missed opportunity for preparation

When the Abraham Accords were signed in 2020, bringing Israel closer to the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, it was clear that Saudi Arabia would likely follow. Tehran viewed this as a major threat to its hegemonic aspirations. Something had to be done to prevent Riyadh from joining.

Here, Israel was unprepared. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu, preoccupied with domestic political issues, neglected to focus adequately on the likely threat of a terrorist attack.

Tehran’s brutal reasoning, executed through its proxies like Hamas, was to murder as many Israelis as possible in a bid to provoke Israel into a devastating response. Hamas, hiding among civilians, knew that the inevitable casualties would make it harder for Saudi Arabia to align with Israel. The high death toll among Palestinians was part of this cynical strategy.

Tehran also knew this would fuel antisemitism in the West, particularly among the left and at the UN. And while Israeli forces made efforts to minimize collateral damage, casualty figures reported by Hamas-controlled authorities are often accepted at face value, without distinguishing between those killed by Israel and those killed by Hamas.

An open war between Israel and Iran is not inevitable.

 

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Mossad have begun eliminating terrorist leaders, even on Iranian soil. In a series of operations, they used explosive devices hidden in pagers and other communications devices to take out a significant portion of Hezbollah’s leadership. A bombing even killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Hezbollah, which regularly fires missiles at Israel, also has the potential to launch raids similar to the October 7 Hamas attack. In response, Israel evacuated 60,000 people from its northern border. To prevent such a raid and eliminate Hezbollah fighters, the IDF has advanced into Lebanese territory.

Lebanon, already battered, now faces another refugee crisis.

What is astonishing is that there are no major protests in the West against Tehran and its terrorists. Instead, anti-Israel demonstrations are allowed, and in some cases, supported by local authorities. While Washington recognizes the seriousness of the situation and has bolstered its naval presence, Europe continues to tread lightly with Tehran.

The UN Secretary-General has hypocritically warned of a spreading wildfire. But it is already here, partly as a result of his failed policies. Israel’s government, for its part, mishandled the situation by underestimating the terrorist threat before October 7, 2023. Internal politics took precedence. Yet Israel retains the right to self-defense – regardless of the Palestinian issue – as Tehran’s goal remains the destruction of Israel and its people.

Israel’s success against Hezbollah temporarily weakened Tehran’s position. In response, the ayatollah’s regime sought to demonstrate its strength by launching the largest missile attack in history against Israel. Fortunately, Israeli defenses successfully intercepted most of the missiles.

An open war between Israel and Iran is not inevitable, but the devastation already caused could play into Tehran’s hands. To prevent this, the West must end its moral support for terrorists.

This comment was originally published here: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/iran-terrorism/