economic models

  In contrast with earlier predictions, most pundits now believe that the fight against inflation will not produce widespread recession. Current worries focus on the consequences of the Chinese slowdown rather than on the performance of the Western economies. Yet, growth in the West remains far from stellar. In the United States, gross domestic product […]

A big and embarrassing challenge to DSGE models (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) is Alex Tabarrok’s latest post at Marginal Revolution. Tabarrok comments on a paper that finds two problems with new-Keynesian DSGE modeling. One is that this model/technique cannot predict real-world data very well. Put differently, when we ask DSGE not to forecast but to […]