Category Archives: GIS Statements

GIS Statements

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation

GIS Statement* by Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

Inflation is a grave economic and social illness. The policymakers and central bankers who colluded in running up excessive public debts and rigging monetary policy to sustain them might silently have been praying for higher inflation rates for quite some time. Finally, they are getting their wish. But for the rest of us, this is terrible news

The danger of inflation was downplayed by central bankers and many economists (source: GIS)

Ernest Hemingway, the famous American writer, was a keen observer of society. In “Notes on the Next War,” he makes this striking observation:

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.
Fear of inflation is spreading globally. After an extended period of asset price inflation (during which the concern for general inflation was downplayed), now consumer price inflation is hitting 4 percent in Europe and 5 percent in the United States. A normal monetary policy reaction would be to take liquidity out of the system. Central banks would increase interest rates and minimum reserves. Since the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) are currently financing governments directly by purchasing their bonds – a risky move that is against their statutes – the central bankers could, in theory, also reduce these purchases, which is called “tapering.”

Raising interest rates increases the debt-servicing burden of the overextended countries. But what about tapering? Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed the policy wryly and clearly: “The Lady is not for tapering.” …

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The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation


*GIS is a global intelligence service providing independent, analytical, fact-based reports from a team of experts around the world. We also provide bespoke geopolitical consultancy services to businesses to support their international investment decisions. Our clients have access to expert insights in the fields of geopolitics, economics, defense, security and energy. Our experts provide scenarios on significant geopolitical events and trends. They use their knowledge to analyze the big picture and provide valuable recommendations of what is likely to happen next, in a way which informs long-term decision-making. Our experts play active roles in top universities, think-tanks, intelligence services, business and as government advisors. They have a unique blend of backgrounds and experience to deliver the narrative and understanding of global developments. They will help you develop a complete understanding of international affairs because they identify the key players, their motivations and what really matters in a changing world. Our experts examine the challenges and opportunities in economies old and new, identify emerging politicians and analyze and appraise new threats in a fast-changing world. They offer new ideas, fresh perspectives and rigorous study.

Sustainability: Let business lead the way

GIS Statement* by Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

To achieve development goals, societies across the world will have to balance economic sustainability, social factors and ecological necessities. Already, business is making strong progress on this front. Governments’ role should be to set sensible parameters, but too often gets in the way, trying to spend or economically plan its way toward sustainability.

Businesses are doing a good job balancing the crucial factors for sustainability, but governments often pull the rug out from under them by implementing restrictive regulations or intervening in the market (Cartoon by GIS)

Several years ago, the World Energy Council coined the term “Energy Trilemma” to describe how energy policies – from local to global – would need to balance three factors: energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability.

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, which comprises 17 aims (see box) became the basis for many sustainability programs and are also subject to a three-pronged challenge. Implementing them will require finding an equilibrium between economic sustainability, social factors and ecological necessities.

Globally, however, imbalances are already visible across various regions. In the United States, social factors – under the umbrella of diversity (gender, race, etc.) – have become the priority, though this overlooks some basic needs and ignores cultural traditions across the globe. Europe is strongly focused on the ecological necessities. In some less developed but highly populated areas of the world, reducing poverty and protecting jobs are the top priorities …

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Sustainability: Let business lead the way


*GIS is a global intelligence service providing independent, analytical, fact-based reports from a team of experts around the world. We also provide bespoke geopolitical consultancy services to businesses to support their international investment decisions. Our clients have access to expert insights in the fields of geopolitics, economics, defense, security and energy. Our experts provide scenarios on significant geopolitical events and trends. They use their knowledge to analyze the big picture and provide valuable recommendations of what is likely to happen next, in a way which informs long-term decision-making. Our experts play active roles in top universities, think-tanks, intelligence services, business and as government advisors. They have a unique blend of backgrounds and experience to deliver the narrative and understanding of global developments. They will help you develop a complete understanding of international affairs because they identify the key players, their motivations and what really matters in a changing world. Our experts examine the challenges and opportunities in economies old and new, identify emerging politicians and analyze and appraise new threats in a fast-changing world. They offer new ideas, fresh perspectives and rigorous study.

Christianity, Marxism, and free society

GIS Statement* by Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

Despite the death and destruction wrought by Marxist governments, the ideology is enjoying something of a resurgence these days. As troubling as that is, perhaps even more shocking is the rapid rise in anti-Christian sentiment. Both trends are a danger to freedom, but together, they make an even more alarming mix

Christianity, Marxism, and free society (source: GIS)
Despite the death and destruction wrought by Marxist governments, the ideology is enjoying something of a resurgence (source: GIS)

Marxism has led to more murder than any other ideology in human history. Including the famines brought on by the planned starvation in the Soviet Union (in Ukraine especially) and China (as part of the “Great Leap Forward”) the number of politically motivated killings easily passes 100 million. The purges ordered by Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong were horrifying, but they were by no means the only such instances. In other communist countries, a tragic amount of blood has been spilled in the name of Marxism. The barbaric regime of Pol Pot in Cambodia, which massacred nearly a quarter of the country’s population, comes to mind.

Both Communism and National Socialism are inhuman ideologies. Besides all of the death they have caused and their use of the term “socialist” to describe their views, they share something else in common: a hatred of Christianity, especially the Catholic Church.

Here it must be noted that although the Catholic Church did have official relations with Nazi Germany, it remained in strong opposition to its policies, especially on race and ethnicity. Many Catholic priests were imprisoned in concentration camps. The official stance of the party and its leadership was fiercely anti-Catholic. The only reason the Nazis did not persecute Catholics more than they did, was because they feared it would weaken the war effort …

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Christianity, Marxism, and free society


*GIS is a global intelligence service providing independent, analytical, fact-based reports from a team of experts around the world. We also provide bespoke geopolitical consultancy services to businesses to support their international investment decisions. Our clients have access to expert insights in the fields of geopolitics, economics, defense, security and energy. Our experts provide scenarios on significant geopolitical events and trends. They use their knowledge to analyze the big picture and provide valuable recommendations of what is likely to happen next, in a way which informs long-term decision-making. Our experts play active roles in top universities, think-tanks, intelligence services, business and as government advisors. They have a unique blend of backgrounds and experience to deliver the narrative and understanding of global developments. They will help you develop a complete understanding of international affairs because they identify the key players, their motivations and what really matters in a changing world. Our experts examine the challenges and opportunities in economies old and new, identify emerging politicians and analyze and appraise new threats in a fast-changing world. They offer new ideas, fresh perspectives and rigorous study.

The self-deception of Western societies

GIS Statement* by Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

Self-deception and dogmatism leading countries to their doom is nothing new. Historically, such a tendency among the ruling elites has led to major disruptions. As the ill-conceived climate policies and public overspending demonstrate in our time, democracies can be rigged to fall into this trap as well.

Catastrophic self-delusion affects democratic countries (source: GIS)
Catastrophic self-delusion affects democratic countries (source: GIS)


The German journalist Gabor Steingart remarked once that the modern citizen is neither Catholic nor Protestant but Politically Correct. “The highest Commandment is that in the name of the good thou should lie to yourself,” he tweeted.

Periods of massive-scale self-deception occur regularly in history and usually lead to cataclysmic disruptions. The typical symptoms of such a process are intolerance of divergent opinions, silencing debates and the rise of conspiracy theories, paradoxically accompanied by frequently hurtling conspiracy charges to muzzle dissenters.

Self-deception is usually coupled with a self-perpetuating of the political elite that requires a constant repetition of the prevailing narrative. The afflicted come to believe this discourse even when facts contradict it. As the consequences of real developments can be devastating to the elite, it is convenient – actually, from their viewpoint, necessary – to suppress the disturbing truth. Pragmatism gives way to dogmatism.

Many instances in history illustrate this mechanism. The ruling elites of France ignored the economic and social situation before the French Revolution. In Nazi Germany, official optimism prevailed until the very end of World War II. Against all logic, France tried to keep the colonial empire alive, leading to frustrating wars in Indochina and Algeria. And France and the United Kingdom succumbed to self-deception in 1956, when they went to war to preserve control of the Suez Canal …

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The self-deception of Western societies


*GIS is a global intelligence service providing independent, analytical, fact-based reports from a team of experts around the world. We also provide bespoke geopolitical consultancy services to businesses to support their international investment decisions. Our clients have access to expert insights in the fields of geopolitics, economics, defense, security and energy. Our experts provide scenarios on significant geopolitical events and trends. They use their knowledge to analyze the big picture and provide valuable recommendations of what is likely to happen next, in a way which informs long-term decision-making. Our experts play active roles in top universities, think-tanks, intelligence services, business and as government advisors. They have a unique blend of backgrounds and experience to deliver the narrative and understanding of global developments. They will help you develop a complete understanding of international affairs because they identify the key players, their motivations and what really matters in a changing world. Our experts examine the challenges and opportunities in economies old and new, identify emerging politicians and analyze and appraise new threats in a fast-changing world. They offer new ideas, fresh perspectives and rigorous study.

The gorilla and orangutan, or how freedom could be lost

GIS Statement* by Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

As in the dystopian “Planet of the Apes” films, people in the developed, democratic world may find themselves stripped of their freedom and wealth if they continue turning a blind eye to the autocratic tendencies of expanding governments. Another big leap in this expansion is taking place during the coronavirus pandemic

Today’s collusion between politics and science looks like it comes straight from a certain classic film (source: GIS)

Wearing masks may be a sensible precaution during a pandemic but looking at the people hidden behind them brings to mind the famous Asian pictorial maxim of three monkeys embodying the principle of “see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.” Like them, we are turning a blind eye to an alarming situation, refusing to hear and talk of it.

When the Covid-19 drama started in China in late 2019, Western democracies were unimpressed. Europe slept until mid-March, when governments began panicking: closing borders, ignoring the right to the free movement of goods originating in the European Union by blocking deliveries of medical supplies to other member states, and freezing the continent in hard lockdowns. Fundamental civil rights, such as the freedom of movement and assembly, were suspended. Public debate was practically silenced

Governments assumed authoritarian powers based on the opinions of selected virologists. Those questioning the measures taken, or merely demanding an open discussion, were marginalized and called all sorts of names. In many countries, governments presented their strategies as the only ones possible, “alternativlos.”

No brilliant results

In an emergency, such a heavy-handed approach may be acceptable for a brief period when a government acts quickly on imperfect knowledge in the face of significant danger. However, one year later, little has changed: arbitrary policies remain in place, and so does the ban on debating them. When you shut down public debate, making the proverbial monkey cover its mouth, inevitably, frustration rises and the opposition becomes radicalized. And your “alternativlos” policies cause all sorts of damage in the real world.

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The gorilla and orangutan …


*GIS is a global intelligence service providing independent, analytical, fact-based reports from a team of experts around the world. We also provide bespoke geopolitical consultancy services to businesses to support their international investment decisions. Our clients have access to expert insights in the fields of geopolitics, economics, defense, security and energy. Our experts provide scenarios on significant geopolitical events and trends. They use their knowledge to analyze the big picture and provide valuable recommendations of what is likely to happen next, in a way which informs long-term decision-making. Our experts play active roles in top universities, think-tanks, intelligence services, business and as government advisors. They have a unique blend of backgrounds and experience to deliver the narrative and understanding of global developments. They will help you develop a complete understanding of international affairs because they identify the key players, their motivations and what really matters in a changing world. Our experts examine the challenges and opportunities in economies old and new, identify emerging politicians and analyze and appraise new threats in a fast-changing world. They offer new ideas, fresh perspectives and rigorous study.