Geopolitical facts arrive in Europe

The worlds of media and politics are now consumed with the United States presidential election. Much of the speculation ignores, however, that whoever becomes president will be confronted with certain facts and developments they must address. This shows that it is not so important who the U.S. president is, at least not in international affairs.

What is shameful for Europe is the current discussion about what is to be done if Donald Trump is elected. Mr. Trump has already served in the White House and was not a danger to Europe. To the contrary, he rightly – if not necessarily diplomatically – pointed out areas where Europe should shoulder more responsibility, especially in defense.

This was an important request at the time and continues to grow in importance. Russia’s war in Ukraine has lasted more than two years. Although Kyiv and the West have so far strongly opposed a peace deal to be agreed before the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, it lately appears that talks over a possible ceasefire are gaining more consideration. While a Trump administration might be more vocal about ending the war, a Democrat in the White House would likely pursue similar objectives.

Credible deterrence

The world is geopolitically dangerous. Beyond the conventional battlefields in Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific, new frontiers have emerged, such as outer space and the Arctic. Another crucial issue is the future of Africa, Europe’s closest southern neighbor.

The main concern for the U.S. in the future will be the Pacific region and its relationship with China. Both China and Russia are conducting important military activities, not only on the ground, such as in the Eastern Pacific and in Europe, but in these new frontiers.

Europe has to realize that a stronger relationship with Russia is essential for the old continent. Russia is a concern for the U.S., both as an ally of China and due to its activities in the Arctic and outer space. A ceasefire along the present frontlines in Ukraine will be considered by Moscow a success. Further demands from the Kremlin based on this perception of success can only be avoided through a credible European military deterrence and by political will. The foolish words now heard in European capitals – that countries have to “prepare” for a Trump presidency – are unbearable. Europe must prepare to credibly counter the threats facing the continent, independent of the U.S.

There was hope at the recent NATO summit in Washington that more would be done for defense; declarations were made and promises given. A lot is still left to do. But will it really happen? Some countries, such as Poland, are already taking the necessary steps. But the first clear disappointment is Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared two years ago the Zeitenwende policy shift towards greater military efforts. However, not much has happened since, and Germany’s defense budget for the coming year does not show any significant progress.

Europe faces a choice

Setting aside the new potential battlefields, the old continent finds both its main risks and opportunities in Russia, to the east, and Africa and the Middle East, to the south. Better relationships on these frontiers would be important for Europe’s security and prosperity. International relations, unfortunately, does not just depend on carrots; it has to be supported with sticks in case of threats. The only effective stick is an effective military deterrence. Diplomatic measures and economic sanctions, so popular in the foreign policy of European countries, are not sufficient.

The continent needs the collaboration of a number of major countries in defense matters, including procurement, planning and training. This would need to happen either inside NATO or in close collaboration with the alliance. It is very doubtful, looking at the ineffective, technocratic track record of the European Commission, that this is the right institution to establish a credible defense.

The lesson from Ukraine should be that Europe has a choice between maintaining a credible defense or becoming a battlefield for various aggressors. It is grotesque that more than 500 million Europeans (including the United Kingdom) need 340 million Americans to defend them against 145 million Russians.