Geopolitical developments as European opportunities

Russia is increasingly losing its grip on some of the former members of the Soviet Union in the Caucasus, the Caspian basin and Central Asia. This gives rise to new scenarios. China is very interested, which is certainly not in Europe’s interest.

However, Turkiye, a true regional power, is also gaining influence in these areas. Precisely in the Caucasus, Turkiye backs the independence of Georgia, but is building especially close relations with Azerbaijan, politically, in energy, logistics and the military. Ankara also has − not only for ethnic reasons − close ties in business, trade and culture with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Pragmatism on the Bosporus is proving successful.

Iran’s role as a regional power in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean area has been severely weakened, leaving Turkiye and Israel as the main regional strongholds.

The interests of the two countries regarding Syria are divergent. Ankara is interested in a robust centralized state, avoiding wide autonomy or even independence of the Kurdish region in the north, which could have adverse consequences in Anatolia. Jerusalem prefers a weak Damascus and would likely establish special relations with the Kurdish region.

Relations in flux

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are rather in the position of observers as regards the Eastern Mediterranean. They would like to have good relations with Israel, yet the current Israeli security operations − which were forced in October 2023 by the terrorist Hamas attack − prevent Riyadh from officially entering into normal relations. Riyadh and Teheran were long direct adversaries, however, lately their relations have become more cautious.

The regime in Tehran, supporting terrorism and striving to become a nuclear power − which would be both a danger for regional security and a boon for terrorism globally − is in crisis. An end of the oppressive regime that is supported by Russia and China would likely be in the interest of peace, and not only in the Middle East.

If we look at Africa, this rich continent is in full development. Its demographic growth is followed by economic measures, needing trade and foreign investment. But the political structures in African states often lack backing from their own base and are therefore shaky, requiring protection from the outside. These voids are now filled by China and Russia. Beijing is striving for an economic grip on the continent, while Moscow is providing armed protection for hire.

Nevertheless, clear and efficient economic and political concepts for Africa that have an understanding of the differing regional variations and local necessities can be found in Turkiye, Israel and the GCC.

Shared interests in Europe’s neighborhood

Now, where does Europe stand in these areas? Besides nice words and comforting, superficial state visits, nowhere − an irresponsible neglect of the political leadership. For these neighborhood policies, Europe cannot do it alone. It needs allies that will mutually strengthen positions.

The ideal allies would be Turkiye, Israel and the GCC countries, as their interests are largely aligned with those of Europe. Such alliances will require pragmatism and a renouncement of arrogant bashing of Ankara’s internal policies, lecturing Jerusalem and snubbing Saudi Arabia. It would also need to abandon the perverted support for Tehran’s regime. Not long ago, Germany’s federal president congratulated the president in Teheran on the 40th anniversary of the oppressive system.

European diplomacy would be well served by working to reestablish working relationships between and with Turkiye and Israel. This would be in the interest of peace. We should not forget that, in the past, the two countries had amicable and constructive relations. Positive engagement with Ankara would significantly help European powers in the Caucasus and Central Asia. European diplomacy would need to shed blinders based on prejudice and learn from such relations.

A point of concern and weakness in European geopolitics is the irresponsible neglect of the neighbor to the south: the rapidly growing, vast continent of Africa. In a mix of incompetence, arrogance, stubborn ideological value ideas and post-colonial guilty feelings, the various regions of the continent were dealt paternalistic, unintelligent advice and showered in development aid, most of it ineffective.

European politicians could take as an example the African investment and free trade policies of Turkiye, Israel and the GCC.  This would help Africa, European peace, business and the economy. This requires less protectionism and arrogant regulations such as the carbon adjustment system, supply chain act and other product-related bureaucratic barriers.

France has lost Africa through arrogance, especially President Emmanuel Macron lecturing Africans on their habits and traditions. Germany – but also Brussels – lacks strategic goals, besides catchphrases such as “promoting democracy” and “inclusion.” A strategy needs to be actionable, not just nice words. This deplorable situation has prevailed for decades.

This comment was originally published here: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/geopolitics-european-opportunities/