The different aspects of a prisoner swap

On August 1, the Turkish National Intelligence Agency coordinated the exchange of 24 prisoners in Ankara. Russia and Belarus released 16 individuals, while the United States, Germany, Slovenia, Norway and Poland released eight.

The swap is said to be the largest such exchange since the end of the Cold War, although there are notable differences. During the Soviet era, spies were typically traded for spies. This case involved criminals, hostages and dissidents.

Negotiations primarily involved U.S. and German intelligence services and their Russian counterparts, with Turkey playing an essential role as a neutral broker.

For Russia, the return of certain agents was highly significant. Two individuals stand out. Vladislav Klyushin, a skilled hacker and entrepreneur who amassed a fortune through insider trading, had been arrested in Switzerland in 2020 and extradited to the U.S. His expertise is extremely valuable. Vadim Krasikov, convicted in Germany for murdering a Chechen dissident in Berlin, is another key figure. His release posed legal challenges for Germany but was essential to secure the deal.

For the U.S., the release of their citizens, who had likely been arrested to serve as hostages, was critical. These included Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich, Alsu Kurmasheva, and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan. Russian dissidents Vladimir Kara-Murza, Ilya Yashin, and Oleg Orlov were also part of the exchange, although Mr. Yashin vowed to return to Russia.

Germany faced considerable difficulties in releasing Mr. Krasikov. The final decision was influenced by the arrest and death sentence of German citizen Rico Krieger in Belarus, who was “pardoned” by President Alexander Lukashenko and included in the exchange.

The swap has several implications. On the one hand, it freed courageous and innocent people. Politically, it represents a win-win situation: it benefits the White House, especially ahead of the elections, and amounts to a rare success for the Scholz government in Germany. Russian President Vladimir Putin can claim victory by getting back his agents, particularly the valuable Mr. Klyushin.

On the other hand, there are potential downsides. This exchange may lead to more future criminal and spy operations, encouraged by the possibility of such swaps. Moscow seems indifferent to its dissidents in the West; in Russian jails, they are martyrs, while in the West, they can be labeled traitors, which is likely why Mr. Yashin initially refused to leave but was ultimately expelled. Although this pragmatic exchange may be justified, it could incentivize further subversive activities.

On the whole, Moscow has made substantial gains, Washington and Berlin have come across as humane and effective, and Turkey has once again demonstrated its invaluable role as a broker.

This comment was originally publshed here: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/prisoner-swap/